Saturday, March 21, 2009

new biggest pot

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1077.60)
Hero (SB) ($819.50) -- 205bb effective stacks

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, 3

Button bets $12, Hero raises to $42, Button calls $30

light 3bet and he calls. i don't make a habit of 3betting these types of hands but throwing a random 3bet like this okay.

Flop: ($84) Q, 5, 4 (2 players)

Hero bets $56, Button calls $56

cbet top pair, standard

Turn: ($196) 9 (2 players)

Hero bets $146, Button calls $146

there are lots of drawy hands that he can flat the flop with, and those hands check this turn behind too often so need to bet again to prevent the turn from being checked through

River: ($488) 7 (2 players)

the river is interesting because it doesn't complete any obvious draws and it doesn't help any of the hands he could call two streets with. in this case, betting isn't ideal because he doesn't call with much worse, so a check to get to show down or to induce a bluff makes more sense.

Hero checks, Button bets $833.60 (All-In), Hero calls $575.50 (All-In)

his all-in bet is so out of line with his two calls on the flop and turn that it doesn't make much sense. let's go through what he's trying to represent here:

- the diamond flush. two problems with this:
  1. he would have raised almost all of his flush draws on the flop
  2. he can't expect me to call this size of bet very often if ever, so to get value out of his flush, it makes a lot more sense to bet 2/3 to 3/4 of the pot
- a set. any set other than 77 would have raised on a previous street. if he is repping 99 here then it's too tiny a range to fold to.
- some sort of two pair. Q5, Q4, 45, all raise earlier. Q9 raises the turn.
- an overpair raises earlier.
- AQ raises the flop some of the time, raises the turn some of the time, and when it bets the river it's not going to overbet almost ever. kq plays the same way with fewer raises on the flop and turn.

now, there are quite a few weaker made hands that can be turned into a bluff given that i've shown weakness and a desire to get to showdown by checking the river. 5x, 67, 66, 88, missed hearts, other missed gutters.

so the limited range of hands that can credibly overbet for value vs the wider range of missed or weaker hands that can turn themselves into bluffs lead to a call in this spot. it is a close call but i think it's a call.

Total pot: $1639 | Rake: $0.50

Results:

Button had 7, 6 (one pair, sevens).

Hero had Q, 3 (one pair, Queens).

Outcome: Hero won $1638.50

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